Tennis betting is unlike gambling on any other sport due to the fact there is a very large gap between the finest tennis players in the world and the rest. Very seldomly are the likes of Federer and Nadal toppled by players ranked below them and that can help shape a punter’s guide to betting on tennis. The phrase ‘bet the house on it’ you feel was made for match-ups between the likes of world number one Rafa Nadal and world number 50 John Millman.
When the competition begins to draw to the business end of the quarterfinals and semifinals, it does begin to get slightly harder to call, as the world’s best begin to line up against each other. Amazingly there is still clarity on who to punt on when considering the head-to-head stats of the players in question.
The 2018 Wimbledon final between Novak Djokovic and Kevin Anderson seemed to be a close match up after the respective campaigns they had put together but, given their history, there was only ever going to be one winner, even though Anderson had shown great fight by beating Federer in the quarterfinals. Before a ball was hit on Centre Court, Djokovic had played Anderson six times and had won on five occasions. There is an unmissable trend there that illustrates clearly that Anderson can’t hope with the Serb’s supple movements and deeply placed shots.
Given that it was a final, the bookies weren’t in unison about the outcome and some had Anderson as favourite at 1/2. Having prior knowledge of the previous meetings between the two would have left informed punters in no doubt as to what the outcome would be. Sure enough, Djokovic demolished Anderson in straight sets to win his fourth Wimbledon title.
There is no better tool to use than the head-to-head one when betting on an outright result in tennis as it depicts an accurate trend formed over many years. When a player begins to get the upper hand over another competitor, they can then hold the wood over them for the duration of their careers.
With the US Open just around the corner, this is a good strategy to adopt when the tournament nears the end. There aren’t any clear-cut favourites as it stands despite William Hill making Wimbledon winner Djokovic the man to beat at 11/4. All the usual suspects should arrive at the quarterfinal stages unscathed and, from there, it’s down to who has enjoyed the most success against their respective opponents.
When two players match up, it’s best to steer clear of an outright bet if no conclusion can be made from their head-to-head record, even though there will be value both ways. If Djokovic were to play Federer in the final, it would be an even match, given they have played each other 45 times. Djokovic’s one extra victory making it 23 wins to the Serb and 22 to the Swiss. There’s little to separate them, which means the chance of backing the wrong player is greater.
Naturally, upsets are going to occur but they are few and far between in men’s tennis. Important factors to consider when weighing up a conclusive head-to-head record is whether the dominant player is injured or unsettled off the court. A slight hamstring strain or an ongoing messy divorce has the potential to nullify any superior record a player has going into the contest for obvious reasons.
Using the head-to-head records will undoubtedly help punters gain a better understanding of the history between two players and therefore shine a light on the overriding strengths and weaknesses likely to decide the match.
