Reuters – Chinese gambling fever has crossed the East China Sea. Shares in Lippo jumped 36 percent after a consortium including the Hong Kong-listed property group won approval to build a large-scale casino in Korea. The prospect of luring punters from northern China explains the excitement. But just as in the gambling hub of Macau, investors may be pushing their luck.

The news appears to have caught investors by surprise. The consortium of Lippo, Singapore’s OUE and Las Vegas casino operator Caesars had a previous application to build Korea’s first foreign-run gambling resort rejected last year. When it’s opened in 2018 – in time for the Winter Olympics – the project near Seoul’s Incheon airport will only be open to foreigners. While that may disappoint Koreans, investors are betting on tourists from nearby China, who currently have few alternatives to southerly Macau. The former Portuguese colony is a four-hour flight from Beijing; punters can get to Incheon in roughly half that time.

The prospect of sharing some of Macau’s riches is clearly alluring. Korean gambling revenue last year was $2.7 billion, versus some $45 billion for Macau, according to CIMB. Paradise, a Korean company which currently dominates the country’s foreigner-only gambling market with Grand Korea Leisure, says that 80 percent of its revenue last year came from Chinese gamblers.

Nevertheless, investors who instantly added $95 million to the market value of Lippo – which has a 20 percent stake in the venture – may be overplaying potential growth. The consortium is unlikely to be the only foreign casino in Korea. Rival Genting is planning a resort on Jeju Island, south of the Korean peninsula. Paradise is also building a casino resort in Incheon with Japan’s Sega Sammy.

While Chinese tourism to Korea is set to grow by 28 percent over the next four years according to Goldman Sachs, too many entrants may spread numbers thin. Moreover, if neighbouring Japan also goes ahead and legalises gambling, it could draw customers away from Korea. Fitch estimates Japan could generate $7 billion in annual gaming revenue with just two casinos.

For now, investors are assuming that the only constraint on Chinese gambling riches is a shortage of casinos. But it’s unlikely that everyone will share in the bonanza.